It's Been More Than Just a Long December: Being Prepared in the Face of Increasing Uncertainty

"A long December and there's reason to believe 
Maybe this year will be better than the last." - Counting Crows, "A Long December"

If you're living anywhere north of the 30th parallel, you most likely know exactly what I'm talking about - it's been far more than a long December for all of us. This winter beat the stuffing out of everybody with the exceptions of Boston and Alaska (lucky!), and it is still barely holding on in my neck of the woods (only flurries today though). The Peach City essentially came to an icy halt altogether at least once. St. Louis residents and businesses alike were in an uproar over the city's snow plow plan, which traditionally left side streets untouched.  Dangerously low cold and wind chills impacted most everybody in the Midwest and Northeast, shutting down schools as far south as Austin. The Great Lakes had near record ice cover. Only Florida managed to escape it, being the only US state to not have measurable snowfall. In short, if you managed to stay above freezing all winter and see less than a dusting, you are one of the very fortunate and few.

An unusually cold and snowy winter is perhaps nothing to worry about in particular. After all, the prior two winters to this one were more or less mild in most parts of the nation, and, once the snow melts off, public attention will go elsewhere. However, this is seems to be part of a wider set of unusual events that are pushing the limits of public services. For example, consider these events:

• Extreme Drought in the Southwest and Midwest in 2012 and 2013: A situation which not only increased wild fire potential in the West but stressed water reserves and agriculture.
• The 2012 Derecho in Chicagoland and the 2013 One in the Baltimore-Washington Metro Area: Major, powerful and fast-moving storms that knocked out power in for thousands in both Metro Areas - for days in many cases. Both stretched the capabilities of emergency responders and public works/utility crews.
• Sandy: The largest weather event of 2012, which effectively shut down the nation's largest metro area and impacted up to 24 states.
• The On-Going Troubles with Lake Mead: Las Vegas' water supply is drying up - quickly - and that has negative implications for most everything in that area.
• The Fall 2013 "Unusual" Winter Events in the Upper Midwest: Blizzards, tornadoes and all manner of hell hit the Dakotas and Nebraska just as the federal shutdown struck, compounding response problems.

Now, some may want to turn this into a debate about whether or not these events are related and the nature and origin of climate change. My argument to you is that for those of us on the local level, that's simply a moot point.  Severe events are occurring, and we, as public administrators, have an increasingly important but daunting task: responding and always being prepared for an above-average event in a time of lean spending and high uncertainty.

Short of an oracle or a time machine, we can't predict the future. However, as always, we can and must continue pursuing avenues which decrease our immediate exposure. Below are some thoughts on ways in which we can begin tackling tomorrow today:

1. Mutual Aid Agreements: I believe these have been common in most emergency responder agencies for years, if not outright mandatory. However, how will you provide public works and utility services or performance emergency building inspections? Thinking broadly about mutual-aid now may pay dividends later.
2. Resource Sharing and Bulk Purchasing: Some mutual-aid agreements intrinsically cover these issues but think broadly about issues like bulk commodity purchases (such as rock salt). If you run out, how will you secure commodities or find extra vehicles? Can a supply or group be pooled and shared? Some forethought and planning here may save costs and time in the not-so-distant future.
3. Regularly Analyze Your Needs and Assess Your Risks: Odds are you have already taken on some kind of survey of your needs and emergency risks at some point as part of an emergency management planning process. But is someone reviewing these plans annually and adjusting or updating them as necessary? A five-year-old plan will not serve you as well as a one-year-old one and could bog you down as you make adjustments.
4. Develop The Relationships Necessary To Manage An Area: Relationships matter, especially when you need your neighbor or one of your vendors. Get out and meet your neighbors, fellow local governments and specialized vendors now so that you aren't searching for them in your time of need.
5. Build Your Communications Network and Resources Now: Every minor crisis is a test of how well you communicate with your residents and businesses. If you didn't perform so well on your last one, take the time to think through the problems and design improvements today. While a minor emergency can be weathered today, an uninformed and confused public could be a huge hazard tomorrow.
6. Learn: The aftermath of Sandy produced a flurry of studies and white papers on a variety of emergency management topics. Some of them are quite good (I blogged about one on social media last year) and worth a read. Remember: Planning now helps promote preparedness later.
7. Encourage Preparedness: I joined several other area PIOs earlier this month in recognizing National Severe Weather Preparedness Week and promoting preparedness resources. Ready.gov has a ton of resources you can share with your residents for all types of events. However, you should always remind residents wherever possible about simple things like how to shut off their water valve at their meter in case of more minor emergencies and the need for having canned food and bottled water on hand.

Remember, it's been more than just a long December and this year may be no better than the last. Think ahead now and promote initiatives to prepare to minimize impacts in the future.