It's Been More Than Just a Long December: Being Prepared in the Face of Increasing Uncertainty

"A long December and there's reason to believe 
Maybe this year will be better than the last." - Counting Crows, "A Long December"

If you're living anywhere north of the 30th parallel, you most likely know exactly what I'm talking about - it's been far more than a long December for all of us. This winter beat the stuffing out of everybody with the exceptions of Boston and Alaska (lucky!), and it is still barely holding on in my neck of the woods (only flurries today though). The Peach City essentially came to an icy halt altogether at least once. St. Louis residents and businesses alike were in an uproar over the city's snow plow plan, which traditionally left side streets untouched.  Dangerously low cold and wind chills impacted most everybody in the Midwest and Northeast, shutting down schools as far south as Austin. The Great Lakes had near record ice cover. Only Florida managed to escape it, being the only US state to not have measurable snowfall. In short, if you managed to stay above freezing all winter and see less than a dusting, you are one of the very fortunate and few.

An unusually cold and snowy winter is perhaps nothing to worry about in particular. After all, the prior two winters to this one were more or less mild in most parts of the nation, and, once the snow melts off, public attention will go elsewhere. However, this is seems to be part of a wider set of unusual events that are pushing the limits of public services. For example, consider these events:

• Extreme Drought in the Southwest and Midwest in 2012 and 2013: A situation which not only increased wild fire potential in the West but stressed water reserves and agriculture.
• The 2012 Derecho in Chicagoland and the 2013 One in the Baltimore-Washington Metro Area: Major, powerful and fast-moving storms that knocked out power in for thousands in both Metro Areas - for days in many cases. Both stretched the capabilities of emergency responders and public works/utility crews.
• Sandy: The largest weather event of 2012, which effectively shut down the nation's largest metro area and impacted up to 24 states.
• The On-Going Troubles with Lake Mead: Las Vegas' water supply is drying up - quickly - and that has negative implications for most everything in that area.
• The Fall 2013 "Unusual" Winter Events in the Upper Midwest: Blizzards, tornadoes and all manner of hell hit the Dakotas and Nebraska just as the federal shutdown struck, compounding response problems.

Now, some may want to turn this into a debate about whether or not these events are related and the nature and origin of climate change. My argument to you is that for those of us on the local level, that's simply a moot point.  Severe events are occurring, and we, as public administrators, have an increasingly important but daunting task: responding and always being prepared for an above-average event in a time of lean spending and high uncertainty.

Short of an oracle or a time machine, we can't predict the future. However, as always, we can and must continue pursuing avenues which decrease our immediate exposure. Below are some thoughts on ways in which we can begin tackling tomorrow today:

1. Mutual Aid Agreements: I believe these have been common in most emergency responder agencies for years, if not outright mandatory. However, how will you provide public works and utility services or performance emergency building inspections? Thinking broadly about mutual-aid now may pay dividends later.
2. Resource Sharing and Bulk Purchasing: Some mutual-aid agreements intrinsically cover these issues but think broadly about issues like bulk commodity purchases (such as rock salt). If you run out, how will you secure commodities or find extra vehicles? Can a supply or group be pooled and shared? Some forethought and planning here may save costs and time in the not-so-distant future.
3. Regularly Analyze Your Needs and Assess Your Risks: Odds are you have already taken on some kind of survey of your needs and emergency risks at some point as part of an emergency management planning process. But is someone reviewing these plans annually and adjusting or updating them as necessary? A five-year-old plan will not serve you as well as a one-year-old one and could bog you down as you make adjustments.
4. Develop The Relationships Necessary To Manage An Area: Relationships matter, especially when you need your neighbor or one of your vendors. Get out and meet your neighbors, fellow local governments and specialized vendors now so that you aren't searching for them in your time of need.
5. Build Your Communications Network and Resources Now: Every minor crisis is a test of how well you communicate with your residents and businesses. If you didn't perform so well on your last one, take the time to think through the problems and design improvements today. While a minor emergency can be weathered today, an uninformed and confused public could be a huge hazard tomorrow.
6. Learn: The aftermath of Sandy produced a flurry of studies and white papers on a variety of emergency management topics. Some of them are quite good (I blogged about one on social media last year) and worth a read. Remember: Planning now helps promote preparedness later.
7. Encourage Preparedness: I joined several other area PIOs earlier this month in recognizing National Severe Weather Preparedness Week and promoting preparedness resources. Ready.gov has a ton of resources you can share with your residents for all types of events. However, you should always remind residents wherever possible about simple things like how to shut off their water valve at their meter in case of more minor emergencies and the need for having canned food and bottled water on hand.

Remember, it's been more than just a long December and this year may be no better than the last. Think ahead now and promote initiatives to prepare to minimize impacts in the future.

A Great Study in Emergency Management and Social Media from the Hurricane Sandy Frontlines

courtesy of http://pzrservices.typepad.com

This week, I had the great opportunity to present to the Illinois City/County Management Association on municipal communication networks and the ways that their success and ROI can be measured (more on that in a future post).  In doing my research on the subject though, I ran across an awesome case study from Hootsuite on the uses of social media in managing a crisis situation.  I'm no stranger to the topic itself, so I wanted to share some of my experiences and the things I learned from sitting on the front line trying to manage communications in a town with no power.

To start, as you know, social media is a relatively new type of communications medium based around platforms allowing for publicly visible two-way interaction.  To this point, social media has been limited to what I've begun calling "platforms" or the designated spaces within which messaging can take place (almost always a website such as facebook, Twitter or YouTube).  Its beauty is its simplicity - all we have to do is craft a message and transmit.  Your "likers," "followers" or "subscribers" (different names all describing those users who are subscribed to your messages) then receive your message and decide what to do with it (whether ignore, read, interact or share).  This basic outline varies a little bit based on the platform but basically looks the same.

Now, understandably, the idea of publicly visible two-way interaction makes many organizations, both public and private, somewhat uneasy since they lose the ability to control their message once its sent.  Appleby's recently learned this the hard way.  However, for the public sector, the fears are often much greater - potential liability for inadvertently violating the First Amendment, transparency concerns, etc.  Therefore, I've heard more than one public sector manager say something like, "Oh no, with all those potential problems, we just won't participate."  I feel that's a mistake - the benefits of using social media can far outweigh the risks if you go about managing it in a strategic, thoughtful manner, especially in emergencies.

Sandy as a Case for the Use of Social Media:

As we all remember, Superstorm Sandy hit the east coast in October last year.  New York City, the Jersey Shore and any costal plain area in the area was seriously flooded, and power was knocked out for thousands (potentially millions) of customers in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut.  One of the hardest hit areas was Morris County, NJ, a suburban county in the NYC metropolitan area with a population just under 500,000.  However, instead of doing traditional "spoke and hub" communications, the County turned to social media to help disseminate information to residents.

Using a Twitter account (@MCUrgent) and a sister facebook account, the County used social media as a way of transmitting emergency response information, taking in requests for aid and responding to those requests.  Obviously, there were two advantages to using social media: (i) it reduced confusion and the number of telephone calls coming in as information was readily available for consumption and (ii) it provides users with a sense of comfort that their concerns are being heard (the article does not elaborate on this but I think its an important point).  Overall, it makes an effective complement to traditional emergency management.

Additional Thoughts on Using Social Media in Crisis Situation:

As a complement to the case study, I wanted to briefly add the following points from my own experiences with social media:

1. Social Media Does Not Go Down: While a storm may cripple telephones, it will not bring down social media.  Since social media exists almost entirely "in the cloud," it can continue to be deployed at any point of a crisis.
2. It Reduces the "Whisper Down the Lane" Effect: Social media can actually be more effective than radio or telephone communications because the source of the information is tangible, posted and does not change (i.e. its less easy for people to distort or blow the message out of proportion since the actual message is posted and easily accessible).
3. It Has Its Own Special Brand of Reassurance: Those interacting with an emergency management agency's social media account and receiving a reply feel that they are being taken care of in a way comparable to a personal telephone call.  However, the exchange is much more efficient.
4. It Works Very Well In Conjunction With Other Communication Types: Social media has reached the point of integration where any type of other communication (a mass notification message, a website post, a listserv e-mail, etc.) can also be instantly and seamlessly posted to at least Twitter and Facebook.  Your social media team can continue focusing on personal interactions without having to worry about posting new messages.

Additional Things to Keep in Mind:

While social media is an excellent tool, as the case study points it, it is not an "all-in-one" solution.  It has some drawbacks that you must be aware of to effectively use it in an emergency:

1. Social media is relatively weak by itself: Depending on the platform, your social media posts may only reach about 5 - 20% of your total contacts depending on a few different factors.  Therefore, social media is based used as a supplemental form of communication to enhance your mass notification and website messaging.
2. There is no "Field of Dreams": Despite what that voice told Kevin Costner, just because you build a social media presence doesn't mean that anybody will come.  You have to notify people that it exists and how to access it before the emergency comes.  Actually, the best time to do so (from my experience) is immediately after a minor crisis where people figured out they needed easy information access but didn't have it.  They are likely to recognize the value and join at that point.
3. Messages may need to be reposted several times: On many platforms, the order in which a user sees messages depends on how users choose to see posts and the time that they log on. Particularly on Twitter, a message may be posted and be completely pushed off a user's immediately landing page in less than a minute depending on the frequency of posts from other users they are subscribed too.  I tend to post the same messages three to four times a day and update social media as soon as I have new information to maximize the audience seeing my posts.
4. You need to think strategically: Constantly improve your social media presence to attract more users and retain those you currently have.  If your crises are few and far between (and hopefully they are), users may lose interest in just seeing meeting agendas being posted.  Vary up your posts and learn about creative things you can do to keep your users attention.  I will have a post in the new few months on that very subject you can look forward to.

Again, thanks to Hootsuite for issuing that case study.   I hope to see some cool things from them in the future.  Remember, social media is a powerful tool and can be used to great affect - however, you can't do it haphazardly.  Think through what you're doing!